Post-Election Reflection

It’s been about two months since the 2024 General Election. There’s been a whole lot of “analysis” about the election. I think most of it is just spin where people conclude what they want to conclude so they can sound smart. It’s kind of like all the pre-election predictions from people. Here’s what you need to know about predicting elections — don’t. We make a bad assumption that people are rational and will do rational things when they vote. Some do, but the vast majority of people aren’t rational when it comes to voting and haven’t ever been. It’s not anything new.

Most of the analysis I have heard attempts to explain the election results down to just one or a handful of reasons. These are the common reasons for the election that I have heard stated:

• That there are a lot of racists/sexist voters (there are other variations of this — like people who won’t vote for a black woman).
• Inflation (the cost of daily things was just too high and the current administration wasn’t doing anything about it.
• Mismanagement (The Harris Campaign raised $1 Billion in a short period of time and still ended with a debt — what does that say about management?)
• Nostalgia (People selectively remembered life as better under the first Trump presidency — while making excuses for things like COVID)
• Media (there’s a whole range associated with this — from fact checking, to alternative media, to paying attention to the wrong things, etc).